Home Prices and Forecasts
What Do We Really Want From Residential Real Estate Available and Proposed Indices?
| Collateral Analytics
by Dr. Michael Sklarz and Dr. Norman Miller Introduction The very first paper to ever suggest an instrument for hedging residential real estate price risk was entitled “It’s Time for Some Options in Real Estate”.[1] We examined…
Home Prices and Forecasts
Home Prices and Property Condition
| Collateral Analytics
by Michael Sklarz, Ph.D., Jim Follain Ph.D., and Norm Miller Ph.D The Collateral Analytics Research & Development Group has been working on a new project over the past year which we feel is both ground breaking and exciting. The goal…
Home Prices and Forecasts
Five Year HP Forecasts for Large CBSAs: The Key Role of the Gap between the Level of Prices and the Level Predicted by the Fundamentals
| Collateral Analytics
by Michael Sklarz, Ph.D., Jim Follain Ph.D., and Norm Miller Ph.D. Our most recent analysis of house prices provided insights about the potential threat of a house price bubble in various parts of the country. The primary indicator of a…
Home Prices and Forecasts
House Price Forecasts for 2015 Using Updated CA HP Model
| Collateral Analytics
Highlighting the Role of Both Long-Run and Short-Run Market Conditions by Dr. James R. Follain and Dr. Michael Sklarz Movements of house prices are driven by both long term factors and short run market conditions. These long run factors consist…
Home Prices and Forecasts
Modelling House Prices at the MSA Level Results and Implications for the Credit Risk Model
| Collateral Analytics
by Dr. James R. Follain and Dr. Michael Sklarz Overview: The Importance and Challenges of Predicting Future House Prices CA’s new Credit Risk Model (CRM) generates measures of the credit risk associated with residential mortgages. One summary measure is the…
Home Prices and Forecasts
New Forecasts of House Prices at the MSA Level
| Collateral Analytics
by Dr. James R. Follain and Dr. Michael Sklarz Five Year Forecasts of House Prices: A New Product from Collateral Analytics An important stylized fact of US housing markets is that movements in the price of housing can vary…
Home Prices and Forecasts
Here’s strong proof of the wide differences in local house prices
| Collateral Analytics
Big data dispels notion of national market by Dr. James R. Follain and Dr. Michael Sklarz Modern analysis of real estimate markets is a great example of the new world of “big data”. Some of the empirical analysis of…
Home Prices and Forecasts
The Effect of Higher Loan-to-Value Ratios on Market Volatility
| Collateral Analytics
June 2013 Market Update One theme which we have discussed in the past year in helping understand the home price “bubble” of the 2004 to 2006 period is the effect of leverage on both price increases and the…
Home Prices and Forecasts
Correcting for the Effects of Seasonality on Home Prices
| Collateral Analytics
This study shows the extent of seasonality in home prices in various markets around the United States. Everyone knows there is seasonality in the pattern of sales volumes over the course of a year, but few studies have examined the…
Home Prices and Forecasts
House Prices and Economic Growth
| Collateral Analytics
House price changes can have both the wealth effect and the collateral effect on the economy. The wealth effect and the collateral effect respectively refer to changes in desired consumption and changes in actual consumption due to house price changes.