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Research

Research

New Forecasts of House Prices at the MSA Level

Collateral Analytics

by Dr. James R. Follain and Dr. Michael Sklarz   Five Year Forecasts of House Prices: A New Product from Collateral Analytics An important stylized fact of US housing markets is that movements in the price of housing can vary…
Research

Residential Mortgage Default Forecasting: How Much Do Price Trends Matter?

Collateral Editor

by Dr. Michael Sklarz*, Dr. Norman Miller** and Anthony Pennington-Cross*** | December 4, 2018 Download a PDF file of this research paper here. Introduction Some housing market observers have noticed that higher priced homes, on average, are taking…
Research

Residential Mortgage Default Forecasting: How Much Do Price Trends Matter? Part 2

Collateral Editor

by Dr. Michael Sklarz*, Dr. Norman Miller** and Dr. Anthony Pennington-Cross*** |   January 7, 2019 Download a PDF file of this research paper here. Introduction In early December of 2018 we published a discussion on the significant and…
Research

Saving Real Estate Commissions at Any Price

Collateral Analytics

by Dr. Michael Sklarz and Dr. Norman Miller  |  August 16, 2017 Download a PDF file of this research paper here. Abstract Here we examine the price differentials for homes sold through traditional…
Research

Some Lessons Using Market Conditions to Improve Home Price Forecasts

Collateral Analytics

by Michael Sklarz, Ph.D., Jim Follain Ph.D., and Norm Miller Ph.D. A strong desire exists among home owners, mortgage lenders, and others with key stakes in the housing and mortgage market to better understand the future direction of house prices.
Research

The Collateral Analytics New Credit Risk Model

Dr. Anthony Pennington-Cross*, Dr. Michael Sklarz** and Dr. Norman Miller***

Download a PDF file of this research paper here. Introduction The new credit risk model (CRM) recently developed by Collateral Analytics is designed to better predict mortgage performance for new and seasoned individual mortgages and pools of mortgages. The…
Research

The Effect of Higher Loan-to-Value Ratios on Market Volatility

Collateral Analytics

June 2013 Market Update One theme which we have discussed in the past year in helping understand the home price “bubble” of the 2004 to 2006 period is the effect of leverage on both price increases and the…
Research

The Foreclosure Inventory Flood that may Never Happen?

Collateral Analytics

Collateral Analytics Research: September 2012 Market Update It is becoming widely accepted that real estate markets in many parts of the country are in recovery mode.  In fact, the transition from weak to good market conditions in many metros has…
Research

The Impact of Distressed Sales on Frequently Used Housing Price Indexes

Collateral Analytics

By Norm Miller, PhD. and Mike Sklarz, PhD, Date: Sept 4, 2009 This fall we can expect an increase in the flow of foreclosures.  Federal and California moratoriums and the hopes of loan modification have delayed the housing markets move towards normality.  So how will this onslaught affect the housing price statistics and in turn the way media will play it? Some educated consumers know that the REALTOR median house price figures are affected by the mix of homes and thus will move dramatically up or down when higher priced home enter or leave the market.  In the short run median prices at the metropolitan level do little to inform homeowners how much their homes may have changed in value over time.  Then we have more mysterious indexes produced by famous economists like Robert Shiller and Karl Case or government agencies like OFHEO, now FHFA.  Can we rely on them for an indication of what the typical home is worth?  Normally they are better than REALTOR median figures for judging price trends, but in recent years with all the distressed sales they too have deviated from reality.  More explanation on the various indicators biases of home price trend indicators are provided in the references below.  Here the focus is the bias created by distressed home prices which vary from market to market, but which are quite extreme in the current market.
Research

The Impact of Noise on Residential Property Value

Collateral Editor

by Dr. Michael Sklarz and Dr. Norman Miller | September 20, 2018 Download a PDF file of this research paper here. Introduction Aside from school quality and view, noise is among the most significant locational factors affecting the value…